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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Halloween is -EV

Semi-live blogging Halloween...

5:54 pm -- I'm home and it's about time for the "festivities" to get under way. In our town, official trick-or-treating takes place from 6:00 until 8:00, so I need to get my act together.

5:59 pm -- I've consulted Danny Sheridan and the over/under on little goblins is set at 30. There aren't that many kids in my area, but since it's in town, the closeness of houses will make it attractive to those junior sharps who want to maximize their candy EV. The weather is good -- clear but a little chilly, so the early money is on the over.

6:05 pm -- Nobody yet. I have enough candy on hand for 40 or 50 kids. They're getting Kit Kats, Hersheys, Twix, Whoppers and I have some peanut butter cups in reserve.

6:15 pm -- So far the tally is at "Fun Size" Twix bars eaten: 2, Kids 0.

6:16 pm -- BOOM .... HEADRUSH! How *do* they manage to get a full half pound of sugar into each "Fun Size" candy bar?

6:26 pm -- First trick or treaters make an appearance. C- for costume effort, but they're smiling and polite, so they get extra candy. Gotta get rid of this stuff.

6:44 pm -- Things are picking up. We're up to 7 visitors. We have an early leader in the 'douchebag of the evening' category: Two kids came, were very well mannered. Middle aged guy with them was not. No costume. Didn't say a word, just held open a generic plastic bag. I'm in a good mood, so he got his candy, but yeesh.

6:59 pm -- Getting annoyed. 9 in the first hour. I've been standing around waiting for people to show up -- this is defnitely boring. Halloween is not one of my more favorite holidays.

7:02 pm -- Hour two will be different - I've gotten out a chair. My brain is currently trying to escape the boredom in my skull. I'm going to pay for this tomorrow. I went to a funeral earlier today, arriving fifteen minutes or so early to a crowd that was already standing room only. Must sit.

7:15 pm -- Several packs of non-surly teenagers have increased the count noticably. I'm up to 20. The under is in jeopardy.

7:26 pm -- Latest count: 26. The one-ish kid in the Tigger costume is leading the cuteness category. The two teenage girls dressed as Victoria's Secret Angels (I think) are leading in the "Good thing they're under 18 so I'm going to be extra sure not to look twice" category.

7:59 pm -- After a thirty minute lull, one last kid. Final count, 28. Total pieces of candy eaten: 2. The under wins on both accounts.


Changing the subject, I continue to have an active imaginary poker life. I was playing some PLO in my head last night, rolling along (Treat) having tripled my buyins.

And then, what do you know, Full Tilt pro John D'Agostino sits down at both of my $50 play money tables.

I had planned on quitting and going to sleep, but found myself havng fun. So I didn't. Bad move. Gave back pretty much all my winnings to another player who hit twice as a 35-40 to 60-65 dog. Sigh. Couldn't sleep, so I decided to try and rebuild. Didn't work. Ended up getting taken to 17% and 20% valuetown after hitting flops. Stupid suckouts. (Trick).

I really shouldn't play PLO. I mean, it's my favorite game and all, but I really don't know why. It's the highest variance game there is, and I'm not a big fan of variance. Especially since my imaginary bankroll isn't really enough to support playing above the nickel and dime (or maybe dime/quarter) level.

So anyway, that's that. Nothing of interest to say, really.

1 comment:

Drizztdj said...

I was surprised how many people were out last night in my neighborhood.

The near freezing temps didn't sway them away very much.