Res Ipsa Poker

Thursday, July 02, 2009

The RNG Giveth

... and the RNG taketh away.

Great session last night, started out on fire. Got a nice 10% boost to the play chip roll when it was all said and done.

And then, just when I think tonight is going well again, I ran into your stock omatard and took a standard retard beat:

I flop the nut straight, 3 in the pot. Idiot bets out 4, I call to control pot size and see what the turn brings. Turn is harmless. Idiot pots it, 12. I re-pot, raising to 48. Idiot has to call 36 into a 71 pot, so he's getting 2 to 1 on his call. I only have 5 behind. He calls. River pairs the board, rewarding idiot who shows that he flopped middle set.

Let me get this straight. You call getting 2 to 1 with middle set, into strength, on an obvious straight board, with no implied odds and nothing to back it up but a prayer for the board to pair or that your eight high frush redraw might be good? When you're at least a 4-1 dog?

Sorry, I forgot myself for a moment there. This is omadraw, where it's call call call and fold the river if you miss. I should WANT opponents like this. And I would, but for the fact that they get rewarded for stupid plays while I get stacked when I screw up.

Okay. Vent over. Feel better. Now I have go earn that dollar I owe you for the bad beat story.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Disconnection

I've been feeling disconnected lately, in more ways than one.

The main event at the World Series of Poker starts Friday. Yay, I guess. I've paid nearly zero attention to the spectacle this year, checking PokerNews once or twice when a blogger has made a run in one of the preliminary events. Some folks have had nice scores, and I guess that Hoyazo's $51k win in the Venetian series is pretty darned impressive as well. And - pending trip reports - it looks like there were some winners at Binions too. Well done.

While y'all are out there winning the big bucks, I actually found myself playing online four days in a row for the first time in ages. Actually, I should change that - I played three days in a row and on the fourth day gave back most of the winnings thanks to Full Tilt disconnecting me. Repeated disconnecting. It's really annoying to have that happen when you're holding the nuts and you have an omatard betting into you - and then you come back and half your stack is gone.

It's hard to muster up a whole lot of enthusiasm anymore for online play chip nano stakes. I stupidly play way above my LOLroll now - mostly the play chip equivalent of 50PLO and 100PLO. I even played the (fake) 200PLO for a while the other day, which is SUPER retarded when I have barely three buyins for that game accumulated.

***

On a different subject, Smokkee has been teasing the return of the Bodog Blogger Blonkament series. If you haven't bookmarked his new site, you might want to do that so that you don't miss out. I think I might have to fire up the software and see if I have any kind of balance.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

RIP RGP

Years ago I used to read the usenet rec.gambling.poker newsgroup. I think I wandered over from alt.vacation.las-vegas. This is back when usenet was a big deal.

RGP had a host of colorful characters, but none was as over the top (or as annoying) as Russ Georgiev. According to Iggy - and Russ' own site - crazy Russ died last week.

Love him or hate him (hate was up about 150-1), the man had a lot to say. You could run a month's worth of uberposts just on the "best" of Russ. RGP has been dead for years but without Russ it'll be even more dead.

***

In other news, NO MORE TAHITI VILLAGE COMMERCIALS!

The company that promised you a free Vegas vacation, tickets to a "hot show right on the strip" and asked "can you say high roller treatment baby?" is the latest casualty of the economy. Bankrupt.

I hope Tanya Roberts can still afford to feed her family.

***

The Pinball Hall of Fame is moving closer to the Strip. This is surely a good thing.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

OMG Head Asplode

It's too hot to do anything productive tonight, so I'm playing online poker (for play chips LDO).

Currently, I have four tables open: One of limit badugi, one of pot limit omaha, the token frenzy tournament (NLHE) and a pot limit omaha/8 satellite.

Yeah. Smart. REAL smart.

I'm getting great Omaha hands at Badugi.

I should open up a stud table and a mixed games tournament while I'm at it.

Not drunk. Really.

Just stupid. And bored.

Which might explain why I just bluffed most of my stack with the hammer like it was 2004. Amazingly enough, it worked.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Suck It Twitter

Who says poker blogs are dead? Go read.

If you haven't been paying attention, Bill Rini has been blogging much more often lately. A change in jobs (and locations) might have something to do with it. Bill's posts are always well-written and persuasive with perspective only someone who's spent years on the inside of the online poker business could have. If you're not reading Bill you're missing out.

Blog posts about strategy aren't dead, either. CK put up a beginner's guide to badugi yesterday. If you hunt though her archives, you can also find guides to many other games nobody plays.*

I was inspired enough to give her post the same half-assed read that I've given every poker book I've ever owned and to fire up Stars. Badugi was the only game offered online that I'd never tried. I found that "reading" brought me up in skill level from full-on retard at least to mouthbreathing idiot, which was good enough to outperform most of the opposition. Holy level zero thinking Batman! If you can't beat the people playing nanolimit badugi you might want to take up checkers. Or Connect Four if checkers proves too challenging. Yeesh.

Go. Read.

So there's your poker content for the day. It's time for me to fire up the U.S. Open stream and make sure nothing productive gets done at work. TGIF.

* okay, almost nobody.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Represent

Congratulations to sprstoner for 3rd place in $2500 NL at the WSOP.

Congratulations to CK for finishing 39th in the $2500 OE event.

Congratulations to LJ for finishing 10th in the $1500 HORSE event.

Let's see some more deep finishes!

***

On a 100% off topic and extremely random tangent... a thought on the auto situation and how far the traditional media have declined:

Italian automaker Fiat now owns a big chunk of Chrysler and by all accounts was regarded by the U.S. government as the only viable savior of the Pentastar as an ongoing concern.

Media reaction: Huzzah! (mostly)

The media reaction I expected but have not found anywhere: Fiat? FIAT? WTF?!?

Doesn't anyone have a memory that lasts more than fifteen minutes?

A few years ago Fiat had a business arrangement with General Motors. As part of the deal, Fiat had a "put" option where it could essentially force GM to buy Fiat's auto business. Fiat at that time was a complete and total basket case - worse than GM if you can believe that - and GM paid $2 billion in 2005 to get away from having to buy Fiat.

And now Fiat is a savior. Huh.

In the last four years Fiat has come a long way. It's obviously not the same company it was in '04-'05 and maybe it's strong enough to salvage something out of Chrysler. But to read no mention of the GM history - a mere four years ago - is baffling to me.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Curious Timing

This weekend Stars has a giant WSOP main event satellite - I think it's 200 seats guaranteed - in place of the Sunday Million. That got me thinking.

Suppose I satellited in and then luckboxed my way to a seat. I still wouldn't be able to play the Main Event because (a) Stars can't buy people in directly, (b) cashout is a bit of an issue at the moment from what I read on the tubes, and (c) I don't have a spare 10k sitting around while I wait for some sort of cashout to happen.

Over/under on the number of those 200 seat winners who actually play the main event? 12?

Intentional timing by the government, tying up funds at a time when lots of players would be looking to withdraw?

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

[O/T] In Tsarist Russia, You Get Moldy Potatoes And Samogan

No poker content here. Haven't played in a week or so, instead I've been on a golf binge. You don't want to read about that, so check back another time.

***

How many ****ing "Czars" does this administration need?

Just this week, our beloved presidente appointed a Great Lakes Czar and a Compensation Czar to ~~monitor~~ decide how much executives at companies getting government money should make. That's in addition to the Auto Czar, Health Care Czar ... Enough. This isn't goddamned nineteenth century Russia.

Truthfully, I don't know if it's the administration calling these mini-dictators "czars" or if it's the ****ing media. Either way, I proudly extend a double middle finger salute to whoever's doing it.

Monday, June 01, 2009

Minimum Wage Saturday Night

As planned I made my way to over to the Poker Zone in Holland, MI on Saturday evening for a little live charity poker action.

Noted: Live game is a bit rusty.

I've commented before, I think, on the room. The folks at the Poker Zone run a pretty good game. The dealers know what they are doing. The wait list system can be a bit sloppy, but I've never waited so long that I felt like leaving. Otherwise any limitations on the experience are really imposed by the charity gaming rules. For the most part, it compares well to any casino room I've ever visited.

It's been months now since I've been to the Zone and yet I was completely at home as soon as I arrived. Some of that is about the people - a lot of the players and the dealers never change. It's the same group. I got a seat at one of the cash tables (1/2 NL) after a brief wait and I knew by name or nickname four or five of the other nine players.

I won a few small pots playing crap in position early. I didn't chip up very fast because I kept getting small pocket pairs, which I could play inexpensively. None of them turned out, so that was a steady drain.

I flopped exactly one set, which worked out well - three kings held up against a flopped set of threes. That got me a decent stack.

Beyond that one big pot, I didn't win many hands of note and lost two which took a nice chunk of my profits. I simply got unlucky on the first hand - I popped it to $15 with AA in late position after a limp or two. Guy out of position called and lead out for $25 on a not real scary T82 board. He didn't have much behind, so after I raised him of course he was going to call ... with 98 offsuit. Yeah, second pair nine kicker. River 9. It happens. The other loser was a good read and a questionable decision on my part. Again a raise to $15 preflop by me, this time with AKo and an out of position call. On a very similar 10 high board, this time opponent open-shoves for $49. Analysis: He either has an underpair or AQ. It was 66, which held. I'll have to check the math on the right move there.

I received an unprecedented number of premium hands. AA two or three times, KK, QQ, TT, at least a dozen smaller pocket pairs. Just the one set, though.

Ended up playing for about five hours and cashed out fifty bucks to the good. Subtract out the cost of driving down and the buck I spent for a coke and it was a minimum wage kind of night.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Engaged In Avoidance

TGIF. As the list of things I should be doing grows ever longer the more I feel like avoiding it ... by playing online poker.

I've actually fired up Full Tilt the last couple nights and indulged in a smorgasbord of (play chip) PLO. Other than brief appearance by Svetlana G I managed to avoid any slumming "red pros". Playing too long on Wednesday turned a nice win into a modest win, and last night was an even more modest win. But a win is a win and two wins are two ... um, never mind. I don't play or write good.

The BBT4 wraps up this weekend. If you have a tournament game and don't hate free money, go win yourself a spot in the Tournament of Champions for an excellent shot at a WSOP seat compliments of our friends at Full Tilt Poker.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

It's Here, It's There

Summer has officially arrived ... the World Series of Poker is underway.

As usual, I won't be going. I enjoyed the summer blogger gathering in '05 but haven't had the good fortune to return since. And I never have spent any notable time around the series.

Fortunately, there are a whole bunch of good folks out there writing about it. Blogging. Twittering. Whatever. If you want to stay up with what's happening, just check them out. Tao of Poker. PokerNews. PokerStars Blog. Full Tilt Poker From The Rail. There are more but I'm winging this post.

Good luck to those who are playing, as well as those working. Just stay alive, man, just stay alive.

***

One interesting side effect of the WSOP starting is that the Vegas jones has rekindled for the first time since December. I had thought that the debacle of the last trip - featuring my worst ever Pai Gow session - plus the cold hard fiscal reality that it ain't happening this year or any time soon had killed it off. No such luck.

I guess I need to start thinking about ways to make and set aside a little extra cash so I can maybe go and at least socialize come December. Obviously poker will NOT be the way to do it, since I suck.

***

On the subject of sucking, someone recently posted a link to their Official Poker Rankings rank, and I was curious enough to look up myself. I knew my recent stats have been dreadful - I was about minus $71535151513* playing the Mookie last year - but I was hoping the history would go back far enough that it would show the days when I used to play and succeed at donkaments. No such luck and an annoying reminder that the UIGEA has been in effect for a pretty long time now.

I definitely miss the old days when I'd have semi-regular tournament "scores" of some three figure amount. Of course you can't win if you don't play, and for the most part I don't. RIP poker.

(* fake dollars of course)

***

Speaking of poker, I may go out and play live this weekend. The Poker Zone in Holland has worthwhile local charities on a regular basis but this time it's one of my favorites - the Spread the Music Foundation - benefitting from your rake. If you happen to be in West Michigan - Holland, Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Grand Haven, Allegan, wherever and want to play some live charity poker for a good cause, stop in. Cash games and tournaments available, see the Poker Zone site for hours and games. From personal experience, I can say that the Poker Zone is a well run operation, the games are usually pretty good and there are enough crasians to get your gamble on if you're so inclined.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Gimme Some Cake

I noted while wasting time recently that Lee Jones, the former Pokerstars cardroom manager and sometime participant in blogger home games, has signed on with Cake Poker to be their cardroom manager.

I don't know much about Cake, but if I were inclined to start playing serious poker again I would be more likely to take a look at them because of this signing. At least some of the good rep Stars earned during the boom had to be due to Lee's involvement and I've appreciated his visits to the 2+2 forums to interact directly with players.

From what I understand, Cake is U.S.-friendly, rakeback is available, and HUDs/Pokertracker type programs are not allowed. If you're looking, you might want to check them out.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Software Guru

I've been hard at work writing a companion app to be used with the Full Tilt Poker client - one which I'm sure will be a blockbuster smash hit.

Tentatively titled "CheekCheck v 1.0", my app will allow you to determine ahead of time if your session is going to be the usual rollercoaster ride of bad beats and suckouts or if it's going to be one of the kind where you half expect Mickey Rooney to come out from behind a curtain and say "stand up, drop trou and spread 'em wiiiiiiiiide open".

I needed it to be finished before last night. Unfortunately, it wasn't.

Instead I got to spend an evening in hypermonkeytiltoramaland. Worst day in a long f---ing time. I knew things were going to be good when I got stacked the first hand in a blind-vs-blind battle, my flopped uber-wrap draw going down in flames to some cheese-eating surrender monkey who decided that an unimproved JJxx was worth pushing to the limit. Goddamned French omatards. Runner-runner jack high flush beat down my crappier flush.

I won't say I played well, but give me a f---ing break. Stacked multiple times. I certainly overplayed the last hand, but was it really necessary to give me A8xx double suited in position, throw out a flop of A82 and have a passive opponent hold AA22?

Steaming hot - and still playing PLO, you can find a picture of me if you google "wikipedia +masochism" - I signed up for the damn Mookie. Made it into the third hour by folding a lot. A timely AA - my only big pair - garnered me most of TwoBlackAces' stack. I think I got AK once too. There was this time where I flopped quads with ~~pure gold~~ 55 against Absinthe, but that was pretty much the highlight. I went out with a whimper, coming from ahead to lose to a turned straight and a runner-runner straight. So f---king standard. 14th place. Made the points, which when added to the dollar in my pocket will pay you for listening to the bad beat story.

So in conclusion I extend a full two middle finger salute to the Full Tilt random number generator. Once I dechiper some additional code and finish my app, your assreaming days are over you little bitch.

[O/T] The Good Times

(I know, I know ... I should have a generic blog for stuff like this.)

When even the eternal optimists in our state government issue a forecast this grim, you have to stop and wonder what the hell is going on.

Unemployment next year is forecast to average just a whisker less than 17%.

If our pals in Washington insist on having Federal Motors build products that people won't buy (absent the return of $4 gas) or if they decide not to "bail out" - by paying for goods provided - suppliers, lolbankruptcytrickedU, that figure will be scary low.

State income tax collections are expected to be down nearly 20%. That's down 20% from this year when we already have double digit unemployment and nobody's made money in the stock market.

A variety of stealth tax increases starting with liquor, tobacco and the state parks are already in place. More increases are coming - our beloved governor is enamored of the idea of a "progressive" income tax and has an opportunity to jack up the gasoline tax by making it a percentage instead of a flat amount.

I guess I should look on the bright side - as long as I don't make any money or ever go out and do anything, I won't be affected by any of this. And I'll never be unemployed as long as I'm self-employed. Woo hoo!

We used to joke that the last one out of Michigan should turn out the lights. There was always somewhere where things were better. I don't know where that is anymore.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

PLOverbet For Value?

With my reduced level of play I don't spend as much time thinking about poker as I once did. Yesterday's play (and recent sessions also) however have gotten me to think about a situation that comes up fairly often in Pot Limit Omaha:

The river card has been dealt and it has given you the nuts.
You are up against one villain who has been leading the betting.
You assume that the river card has counterfeited villain's made hand,
or at worst he/she has the same hand you do (e.g. broadway).

What is the optimal bet size to get villain to call you?
(assuming you have no read on villain).

Any time you have the nuts you want to extract maximum value. The issue, really, is whether PLO players respond differently than NLHE/PLHE players.

When playing NLHE, I am a fan of the overbet for value. Bet as much as possible. While it doesn't work every time - and you certainly are going to have opponents who are too weak/tight/savvy to call even if they think they're ahead - there is a very good chance that the overbet is a +EV play against a random opponent.

I'm not so sure that's the case in PLO. This is results-oriented thinking at its worst, but it doesn't seem like I get very many calls when I pot the river. Some of that may be table image, but I'm really starting to wonder if it's more about your average full ring PLO dabbler being a weak/tight nit who refuses to call without the nuts.

If that's the case, there should be an optimal bet size - again assuming a random opponent - of less than the pot that incites calling (or better yet raising) all out of proportion to what you would expect. I simply don't know what that bet size is. I don't seem to get many calls with any reduced bet size either - it's almost as if a 1/4 pot or 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot bet is a giant flashing "I have the nuts!" sign.

If there isn't an optimal sub-pot bet size - if any bet greater than zero (i.e. a check) will make a call a low-probability event, then it would seem that the full pot bet would most likely be the optimal strategy.

Since my thinking on this is a work in progress, I'll leave it at that for now. With the addition that the above shows just how useful it is to know your opponents, and also that I should be taking a stab at more pots than I do when I can represent a hand that got there on the river.

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