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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Sigh

I thought that my internet connection problems were a thing of the past. I haven't complained in weeks, mostly because I haven't had a problem in weeks. The gremlins are back. The strength of the wi-fi signal varies wildly and my browser gets stuck in a loop bouncing between the ISP's login page and my home page (google fwiw). It's basically unusable. Stupid internet.

Obviously I missed the Tuesday Bodonkey and last night's M00kie. Tonight is Bodonkey II and that's looking grim as well.

If anyone needs me I'll be busy trying to figure out the problem.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Bodonkey Is Back

Tonight. Bodog. I think it's at 9:05 ET. Visit Smokkee for details. Good structure. Bounty on Rizen. Be there, yo.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Standard

Your usual Monday update: No poker was played. I was in full-on lazy bum mode all weekend. I watched a bunch of football. Slept in. Read. Exciting.

I did come to the conclusion that I should separate out my fantasy football / Fantasy Sports Live "content", so I did what any self-respecting internet addict would do, I created a separate blog. It's very much a work in progress.

Posting here will probably continue to be light this week as work once again kicks my butt.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Blow This

Well that was interesting.

As anticipated, a dime rebuy is madness. Madness, I tell you.

I think I ended up with 30-some rebuys as I lost hand after hand early. Late in the rebuy hour I started picking up some pots and closed with a monster -- AA right as the break arrived, which allowed me to double through a big stack (AK no good) and then some.

I finished the first hour with 180,000 chips (+/-) and an M of about 155252152466.

I finished the second hour with 180,000 chips (+/-).

I finished the third hour with 180,000 chips (+/-).

Mercifully, early in the fourth hour my internet service crapped out for no apparent reason. I waited about five minutes to see if it would come back and when it didn't, I went to bed. I see that the tournament took until 3:15 to finish. Yikes.

I blinded off in 17th after bouncing around between 6th and 12th over the last couple hours. Not bad, but not successful either.

A fun experiment, but not something I'm likely to do on a regular basis. Living in the Eastern time zone and having a job do not mix well with that sort of thing...

Monday, October 20, 2008

This Week In Bloggaments

In addition to the usual: Live Poker Radio Monday, Skillz Tuesday, Mookie Wednesday, Riverchasers Thursday (?) and Dollar Donkament Friday, this week we have the mother of all retarded donkey events:


I'm probably going to play, and if so I will be testing the limits as to how many times one can rebuy in an hour.

***

EDIT:

I think there ought to be a Run Bad Challenge during this event. Each interested person can put some amount ($5?) on any participant in the challenge. Whichever participant rebuys the most is the "winner" and the pot is split amongst each person picking the "winner".

I'd buy myself and Katitude. Nobody runs bad in rebuys quite like Kat.

***

Also of note: the second coming of the Bodonkey kicks off next Tuesday (the 28th) with a twist - games on Tuesday AND Thursday. A tournament of champeens with a $2100 first prize awaits, along with the usual plethora of T$ and cash bonuses. Thanks Bodog and thanks Smokkee for putting this together!

All the details and (NOTE!) registration info can be found at Smokkee's blog.

See you at the tables!

[O/T] Microsoft Ate My Muse

I wanted my keyboard the other day.

Not just any keyboard. My keyboard. My keyboard, an eight pound brick of 80s technology and indestructible by any means short of a nuclear bomb or Bill Gates' relentless need for profit. 101 full sized keys that make an audible "click" when you press them. The very antithesis of the $9 made-in-China crap that passes for keyboards now and which can be be snapped in half, Bo Jackson style, by your average five year old.

A real keyboard.

***

I spent a lot of time reading this weekend. I knocked off two books - Dan Jenkins' latest novel, The Franchise Babe, and David Giffels' All The Way Home. It was Jenkins that made me want my keyboard. I'm not convinced he's the greatest writer - if anything, he's probably overrated. The Franchise Babe isn't serious lit. It is, however, funny as hell, especially if you can deal with the fact that Jenkins seems to hate pretty much everybody except Texans. He's crusty - Andy Rooney but with a sense of humor - crude and quite probably racist. Who else could write "If you looked at a list of LPGA scores in a newspaper, you'd think our ladies were being invaded by Chinese takeout" and get away with it?

I'm not a writer, but I was feeling inspired. What I needed was a keyboard.

***

I can't remember when exactly I came into possession of the keyboard. It was salvaged from somewhere, a leftover from when someone upgraded their systems. It could have been retrieved from my dad's office. It may have been acquired from the same University surplus store that long ago provided me with a 110 baud acoustic modem that you stuck the handset into. I may have snagged it from one of my other jobs. Who knows?

The keyboard served me well through several upgrades of my own. I went from a clone to a castoff to a custom-built Pentium to a Compaq. Each time the keyboard came along for the ride. I had to buy adapters over the years as the plug didn't match up with the latest technology, but I always found a way to make it work.

Until one of the more recent versions of Windows came out. Adapter yes, but software recognition no. Damn you Microsoft. Damn you to hell.

Since I didn't have my keyboard when I needed it this weekend, I didn't write. Kind of like I haven't written for years. Since whenever Windows XF or whatever came out and left me to plug away on kiddie keys.

I read instead.

***

To me the sign of a good book is that I'm inspired when I finish reading. I was inspired to write when I finished Jenkins, and I was inspired to do something HGTV-worthy after finishing Giffels. His book is an account of fixing up a dilapidated Tudor Revival mansion in his hometown of Akron, Ohio. Actually, dilapidated might be too charitable, but I can't think of a better word that says "seriously fucked up". He and his wife have been fixing the place up for ten years, doing as much as possible themselves and on no budget. I read about the book courtesy of a stray link to a review in the NY Times and spotted it at the library last week. Gripping stuff. I stayed up way too late finishing the whole thing.

After the initial post-reading inspiration has worn off, I think I'm glad that my hometown has no notable architecture. I'll stick to painting and ill-advised yard projects, thank you.

***

So that was my weekend.

I think I better not read any books about winning the World Series of Poker or climbing Mount Everest. I have yard work to do and an old keyboard to find. I wonder if they make 8 pin to USB keyboard adapters?

[O/T] Fantasy Fail

I thought I was sunk after the dismal performances by Peyton Manning and Drew Brees
-- buffalo66

The difference between a fantasy pro and a dilettante is the ability to survive a bad week by a player. Or, in my case, by a couple teams. It should have been easy - Peyton and the Colts going up against a seriously depleted Green Bay secondary. The unstoppable offensive machine that is the Saints, even against a solid Carolina D.

Oops. I could use a mulligan, because I definitely was sunk.

Oh well. I was definitely due for a bad week, and I got one. I picked good RBs, but lots of backs had good weeks and I didn't jump on Mewelde Moore and Stephen Jackson. Receivers were okay, except for Wayne. Taking Andre Johnson against the Lions was a no-brainer. I should have taken the Texans QB too - which was my initial instinct of course. It came down to too many Colts and too many Saints on a week where both teams laid an egg.

For the second time this season, I was unable to beat Dr. Pauly for a third consecutive week. I need to pick up the pace if I'm going to win any of the sweet sweet Fantasy Sports Live bonus money. (Did I mention that you're crazy if you're not playing over there yet?)

The weekend could be improved to a wash if I can squeeze 13 fantasy points out of (ugh) Matt Cassel. Considering that he put up 1.5 in the first quarter, things are looking grim.

Fantasy sports, so rigged.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Two Can Play At That Game (More If Needed)

Al Can't Hang is a tease. You know it, I know it, he knows it. Hinting around at events being planned for the WPBT Winter Fiesta (that's December 12-14 bitches) but not giving up details. Bastard.

Two can play at that game. Hey Al, do you have one of THESE?

Uh, well, you should. That's all.

I'm just sayin'.

***

Speaking of games, I'm thrilled to be named by CK to the Real Football Fan Committee, tasked to play a part in the determination of whether one Dawn Summers is a real football fan or a hopeless, pathetic, front-running Yankee fan bandwagoneer who probably hates America.

Who knew that just showing up early could get you such an honored position?

Of course this means that I have to actually be awake during NFL Sunday, which proved to be more than I can handle the last time I was in town on that day. Stupid craps.

***

I got super bored today and entered my first ever NASCAR contest over at Fantasy Sports Live. I have never watched a NASCAR race in my life. Seriously. I think I've seen a couple laps on TV and I've driven by the Rockingham speedway a few times, but that's it.

How do you pick winners when you have no idea who anybody is? You go with guts. Oh, and you try to remember the names of the racers you've seen on the license plate holders of the local rednecks.

Yeah, I'm not expecting a return on that dollar. And not so much on the one I invested in a hockey contest, either.
But if I win, it's all skill baby.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Weekend Good Things

Count 'em up:

(1) Nice weather. Pushing 80 in October is not typical. (2) Crazy hot streak at Fantasy Sports Live (subliminal reminder to use bonus code BONDS for best signup bonus) continues. (3) Super crappy regular fantasy team is going to pick up another win. (4) Winning poker. (5) Green Bay (+3) was an obvious pick and easy winner.

Does it get any better than that?

Um, well...

Never mind.

I'm fairly amazed that even the pokering was positive. I did get a gentle reminder of the importance of table selection. I played one table of garden variety deep NL on Friday, had a great, passive set of opponents and picked up nearly a full buyin. I got someone to pay off my overbet for value (2x the pot on the river) for once and generally had a great session. Saturday's session wasn't as swell - two tables of 16-tabling nits and LAGtards - and produced a small loss. I did kind of enjoy getting berated by a LAGtard for passively playing JJ out of position - he played his unimproved 22 like it was the nuts - on an all undercard board. I had a note but didn't feel like getting too frisky. Still won a decent sized pot. Otherwise, though, I should have dumped both tables and gone looking for greener pastures.

Lesson learned. For now.

So anwyay, the weekend was good. The week upcoming will not be so good, with many hours of unpleasant work in the forecast. Which I'd better get started on right now.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Chat Of The Day

on_thg: you didn't have a ten, so what you crying about?
macman247: lick me
on_thg: k
demex: who u talkin to?
on_thg: eww, cantaloupe

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Player Behavior In Low Limit Online MTTs

You always read about online poker being rigged. I'm not saying it is, I'm not saying it isn't. That's a subject that's way beyond me and best addressed elsewhere.

Think about this, though: Part of the perception that poker - in this case multi table tournaments - is rigged can be attributed to the skewing of results by differences in player behavior.

Logically, as your perceived chance of winning a pot increases, so should the portion of your chip stack that you would be willing to risk in any given hand. Is there any question about that? If you have a zero percent chance of winning the hand (by any means), you would not be willing to risk a single chip. If you have ~100% confidence in winning, you would happily risk every chip available. There may not be a 1:1 linear relationship, but in general, you're going to get a line or curve similar to this graph:
Note that this accounts for variations in playing style. A more aggressive player is going to be more willing to risk his or her chips, and as such would be in the pink zone somewhere. A more conservative player, less willing to risk things without greater certainty, would be in the gray zone. Both would play identically at the extremes (0% confidence or 100% confidence), the difference is in between.

Logical behavior produces logical results.

The problem, however, is that online players aren't rational. Or logical. Or in many cases even conscious. If you're focusing, specifically, on low buy-in tournaments, player behavior is more accurately reflected by this graph - again, with more aggressive players being in the pink zone, and tight nits in the gray zone:

Players in low buyin online donkfests fall into two categories: Mouth-breathing morons who will shove their stack at any time, and people whose tighty whities are three sizes too small and won't release a chip without a doctor's note. There is still some correlation between risk and reward, but it's largely limited to extremes - which is what leads to the prevalence in donkfests of preflop all-in confrontations. Think about that - both the abundance of AA vs KK matchups and those between, say, AA and 85s are accounted for. They simply happen more often when more players exhibit more extreme (i.e. illogical) behavior.

How do you adjust you game to deal with this reality? Well ...

Sucker.

Did you really think I have any idea? Go to the back of the class.

Sorry, that was a pretty elaborate setup for Paintroll, wasn't it? Apologies if you actually read the whole thing.

[Semi O/T] An Honor And Some Plans

According to the Las Vegas Advisor:
Jackie Gaughan, the grand old man of downtown casinos, will receive the key to the City of Las Vegas from Mayor Oscar Goodman on Oct. 13. The 11 a.m. ceremony will be held at the 651 E. Ogden Ave. entrance to the El Cortez's new CabaƱa Suites. El Cortez GM Mike Nolan will also be in attendance. Gaughan recently liquidated his ownership of the El Cortez, the last piece of a modest casino empire that, at various times, encompassed eight Las Vegas gambling joints.
Well deserved in my opinion. I've always admired the way he ran his properties - much like Benny Binion, he catered to gamblers by offering a cheap bed, cheap eats and fair rules. It was a sad day when he sold the Plaza and his other properties (all except for the El Cortez) several years ago and they haven't been the same since.

I'm hoping that keeping the El Cortez more or less "in the family" - with family and long time associates retaining control - will allow it to continue on. The place has really been spruced up over the years and is one of the nicer places downtown. I certainly have my doubts about the Cabana Suites - the old Ogden House was nothing to write home about - but will be interested to check them out for curiousity's sake at least.

It doesn't look like I'll be staying there this trip. I received my December mailer from Harrah's and it looks like two free nights at most of their properties. I'll probably just go with the Imperial Palace again, since the location is unbeatable and it remains some of the cheapest dirty fun on the Strip. Plus, it's free. Then again, I've been getting a steady stream of offers from the Venetian, so if they finally send one that doesn't expire in November, I might take them up on it.

Come on December.

Time is getting short to accumulate gambling funds. I might actually have to start playing poker again and hope that I've finally been un-doomswitched, or maybe I'll just start pushing and praying over at Fantasy Sports Live (obligatory bonus code BONDS reference here).

Monday, October 06, 2008

Sixteen Tons

(alt. hed: Uribe '08 / '10)

Another day older and deeper ... it's Monday again.

Another poker-free weekend.

Instead of pokering I hit the golf course, puttered around the house and had a fantastic Sunday on Fantasy Sports Live (insert obligatory mention of bonus code BONDS for the best signup bonus duh). Four out of five cashes, bubbled in the other. And that's despite Tomlinson having a lousy week while appearing on pretty much all my rosters. Suck it, Chunky Soup, your lean protein let us down.

Another win pending in my regular fantasy league as well - unless Peterson goes beyond wild for the Vikings tonight, the worst fantasy football team in recorded history will improve to 2-3. Srsly. Worst ever. I started my second defense as my flex player this week, how sad is that?

Yeah, yeah. Not poker related. I should get make a Fantasy Sports Live blog. Maybe.

It's also a good thing I don't have cable. I was house sitting as well and faced the difficult decision last night of whether to watch football highlights, a college game, a showing of "Mean Girls" or something else.

Anyhow, you have your usual assortment of blogger fun and games this week. Pick any day other than Sunday and there'll be something out there. Best chance for me to play will be the M00kie on Wednesday. If I'm smart, though, I won't play unless I get my home office rejiggered - a stupid (but probably valid) reason for my tilty MTT play of late is that my ass gets tired of sitting on the uncomfortable chair I've been using.

Wait, what was that? Too much information? Moving on ...

Going completely off topic, I would like to give a ceremonial kick in the balls (or in the ovaries, whichever applies) to whomever it was at the Associated Press that decided that "Shakira Endorses Obama" was newsworthy. The Free Press was so pumped about it that they linked the story twice and ran much of the text on the front web page. Idiots. Maybe tomorrow they'll solicit endorsements from Gerard Depardieu, Mr. Bean and some Japanese guy who does crazy TV commercials, since it's obvious that the rest of the world should tell us who we should vote for.

Just over a month and our airwaves will be restored to their otherwise pristine (if stupid advertising filled) state. It can't get here fast enough. I'm me and I approved this goddamned message.

[O/T] Quotes of the Day

"I like to be soused. When you're drunk, really drunk, you have no problems."

"Stupid laws. Why don't we fight them? One dumb law leads to another and in the end you are a slave!"


-- Jack "Dr. Death" Kevorkian, candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives