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Monday, October 09, 2006

Scratching My Head

Slow weekend on the poker front. Played a bunch of $25 and $50 PLO on Stars. Up. Down. Up. Down. Ended up down when I missed a whole series of monster draws against junk like bottom set. They don't fold so you better hit if you're going to play aggressive.

Oh, well.

One hand from early in the weekend has been bugging me, and maybe someone can point out what I'm missing.

I have QhJhXX (junk hand) in the blinds. At the turn, the board is Ah Kx Jx Th, giving me broadway and the 2nd nut flush draw. I get raised all in and call figuring (given the circumstances - preflop action) there is a very good chance I'm freerolling on the flush draw.

I'm correct. Villain has KsKcQxX for broadway and the full house draw. No hearts. No other flush draw is out there.

The river bricks and we split the pot. Villain immediately starts moaning about having so many outs. I make a flip comment in reply, and another player says that villain had more than twice as many outs. I run the board through pokenum, which says that villain was a 60/40 favorite, with 16 outs to my 9 (the rest tie).

Either I must have input the hand incorrectly or I'm remembering it incorrectly, because I don't see what I'm missing here. If the river is one of 3 aces, the case king, one of two jacks or one of three tens, villain wins. If it's the 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2 of hearts, I win. That's 9 outs to 8. Everything else is a chop.

I know that I checked the board to verify that there was only a heart draw, and villain had KKQx with no hearts. I'm stumped.


In case you've been living under a rock, Full Tilt Poker brushed off the whole owning of U.S. poker players by Bill Frist in the best way imaginable -- by offering a huge reload bonus and sending out an email making it very clear that they're not going anywhere.

It'll be interesting to see how much business from Party and Pacific finds its way to Full Tilt, especially if Stars (noncommittal to this point) waffles or bails on the U.S. market.


Saturday was the first day in a long time that I wished I had about six TVs. I was housesitting so I had cable and could flip between the Michigan-Michigan State game (ESPN), the Tigers-Yankees game (Fox), LSU-Florida (CBS) and every once in a while Texas-Oklahoma (ABC). I have no idea what NBC was showing (edit: Now that I think about it, it probably was the Notre Dame game), but if it had been worth watching (like, say the Minnesota-Penn State game) my head would have exploded.

Nice to see the Tigers lay the wood to the Yankees, and Michigan State had another strong effort in the campaign to get John L. Smith fired before the end of the season.

Detroit fans are giddy with the success of the Tigers, but fortunately there are always the Lions to bring things back to reality. The Lions are the worst team in football and not getting noticably better. Ugh.

Not much to say I know, but it happens. Time to go back to holding my breath over the Mario Manningham injury situation...


Royal said...

Something doesn't seem right with that hand being 60/40. It's close to 60/40 if he's drawing to a different flush. Otherwise it should be a coin flip.

DuggleBogey said...

Congrats on the Detroit win...The folks at ESPN are calling it the greatest upset in sport kidding. When the Yanks get eliminated I root for the AL to beat the NL, so keep it up against the As and straight through the series!

And the Lions are not the worst team in the NFL. They're at least two touchdowns better than the Raiders right now.

on_thg said...

I actually mislabeled the Kh -- the case king would give me a royal, so it's not an out for the villain. I'm still baffled.

I'm not sure the Detroit win was the greatest upset in sports history (or even close) -- they won about the same number of games as the evil empire, and the Yankees' pitching all year was less than invincible. But it was still an upset.

I'd wager serious money that the Lions are even worse than the Raiders (and it has nothing to do with the 21-3 whupping from the preseason). Too bad they don't play, it could be like the Super Bowl of Suck. I guess Lions-49ers will have to do.