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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Thursday Thoughts

Mookie'd. Finished a nondescript 27th when KJ couldn't outrun T8s. I should have been out a lot earlier - I applied the most painful of bad beats by sucking out on the river to crack AA with 99. My sincere apologies to whoever the poor victim was.

Now where do I apply to get those 2+ hours of my life back?

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Caution, may contain poker-like content: The worst poker player posted the hand and there have been some comments, but I want to add my own spin on a hand from the Bodonkey on Tuesday. Maybe some of y'all will have thoughts to add. No criticism is intended, since I have no standing to criticize anyone else when it comes to donkey play.

All numbers are approximate, since I do not have the hand history.

Eight players left. It's folded to me in the cutoff. I have about T3500 and AQs. With blinds of 300/600 or so, I can't get my chips in fast enough.

Instant Tragedy, on the button with T17,000 or so, calls.

Waffles, in the SB with about T10,000, calls.

NumbBono, in the BB with a big stack - well over T20,000, I think - jams.

Tragedy folds.

Waffles calls.

Flop is Q8x and Waffles wins the pot.

Now, ignoring the results for a moment, who made good plays here and who didn't? I don't expect anyone to suggest that I do anything other than what I did -- it's the other players I'm interested in.

1) Tragedy calls. I'm okay with this decision. Some would see it as weak, but with two players behind him, why commit any more chips than necessary? I think folding also would have been an acceptable play. We don't know what he was holding, but you can make a case for calling with a pretty large range here, trying to knock out a player plus pick up the blinds.

2) Waffles calls. I don't like this decision. With two players already in the pot and just a medium pocket pair, the 3 to 1 or so pot odds (I don't remember if there were antes, I would assume so) don't favor set mining. If overcards come on the flop and Tragedy makes any kind of move on the pot, you have to expect to fold. Also, this decision commits about 25% of his stack.

3) NumbBobo jams. Waffles didn't like this decision, but I think it's justifiable. Both Tragedy and Waffles have plenty of chips left if they fold - folding would hurt, but not cripple either. If I have AKo, I'd prefer to play heads up instead of in a 4 way pot. With that stack, even a weak/tight player like myself would find it very hard to justify folding.

4) Tragedy folds. I agree with this play. I think Sean can lay down anything short of AA, KK or maybe QQ here. Sure, it would be possible to triple up, but there aren't that many hands with enough equity to make the call profitable.

5) Waffles calls. He obviously liked the results, but I wonder if anyone else thinks it was the right move. I will assume that he got a read of AK or AQ or something from NumbBono's shove - and not AA-99. He's getting about 3-1 on his remaining stack, which I guess would make calling profitable in a coin flip situation - although the possibility that I could have AA-99 would cut into his equity. Then again, if NB did have a higher pocket pair, Waffles is drawing very thin.

Of all of the plays made here, I think I like Waffles' first call the least. I'm not enthused about his final decision, but I think it's somewhat justifiable, particularly if he was playing for the win. Like people say, sometimes you have to get lucky.

***

OI is too a word: Post of the day, non-poker category, is definitely Dawn Summers laying a Scrabble smackdown on some unsuspecting Aussies. Good stuff.

***

Got a call for a possible home game on Friday. I'm sure it will be weather permitting. Time to round up some spare change.

6 comments:

Drizztdj said...

Anything that gives Waffles the chips and they aren't mine, I advocate as the +EV play.

SirFWALGMan said...

I called with 88 in an effort to get once closer to the bubble or pass the bubble. To give IT a better shot at knocking you out. I also was getting 3-1 on my 3k and like you said I could fold and not be damaged too badly. If it was earlier in the MTT I fold there easily for 30% of my stack.

The only reason i do not like Numbono's push is again I want the BEST SHOT to knock one more player out and be one closer to the money.

My call was totally based on the large pot and thinking Numbono jams a wide range of hands there. Your 3k in chips did not matter at that point because if I only beat Numbono I am 4k up on the start of the hand instead of 3k down. If I beat you both I am in great shape to go deep.

Was it the best play ever? No. It worked out well though and tourneys are so much about luck as my eventual knockout in 4th with TT vs 55 proves.

Good game anyways.

NumbBono said...

I'm jamming here because I want to isolate against you. AK holds up better headsup than in a multiway pot. That part that I'm counting on is that Tragedy and Waffles aren't going to risk their stacks with mediocre holdings. Unfortunately, Waffles is a donkey, and doesn't realize that jamming 8-8 into a three way pot is -EV.

The knee-jerk reaction to my jam is that it's a donkish move, but if you examine the reasoning, it's a pretty decent play that just didn't work out.

I knew Waffles was playing mediocre hands like they were the stone cold nuts, and my read was spot on.

With 8-8, Waffles has to know that he's either way behind (to an overpair), or racing at best. If he wants to risk his 10K stack with those odds, he's an idiot.

But, that's why he's the Worst Player Ever.

SirFWALGMan said...

Baby Talk Baby Talk its a wonder you can walk.

bayne_s said...

I don't like waffles 1st call pre-flop. Shorty shove does not have to be strong, IT's call is weak. with 88 I want a coinflip with on_thg (with IT dead money) or coinflip for side pot with IT.
Folding is also acceptable option.

After numbbono's shove waffles has tocall due to pot odds. 3:1 pot odds he has to call with ATC.

Ronnie55 said...

Great analysis and reads. I enjoyed reading this a lot. It felt like I was there for the calls and folds =)