tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post6936096579947422649..comments2008-05-07T17:16:17.538-04:00on_thgnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-29778708041131872072008-05-07T17:16:17.538-04:002008-05-07T17:16:17.538-04:00Well, the TOC will have around 50 people give or take... assuming equal probability for all, that's about a 2% chance for a player to take it down. And 2% is "close to zero chance" I suppose. ...<BR/><BR/>I would adamantly disagree with Hoy here, as I believe that ANY donkey that can find a means of winning a TOC seat, has the means of winning the TOC. And I believe to think any differently is pretty dumb. (Although I understand the arrogance that can make one reach such a conclusion.) Of course the odds on favorites are gonna be folks like TuscJohn, Loretta, Lucko, et al, but to assume others have ZERO chance is laughable. (Well, okay unless joshuacarlsen got in... he would have zero chance.)<BR/><BR/>(FYI... joshua's my donkey roommate. I jest. ... sort of.)RaisingCaynehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14827163499901916297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-26454202789253057022008-05-07T07:18:37.189-04:002008-05-07T07:18:37.189-04:00Reasonable people can disagree about the percentage chances of winning of some of the dead money players, or about the fraction of ToC entrants who are in that "dead money" pool. I just went and re-looked over the list of winners though, I am seeing about half the field of very strong, proven blonkament players, and half the field of guys I don't see as having much of a chance against a field half-full of solid blonkamenters.<BR/><BR/>Like you said, the *real* point of my post is that many people are like you and don't view a ToC seat as being worth $550 or more to them. I'm sure your $1 comment was tongue in cheek, but that was really the whole point I was getting at. That, and that people simply are not requiring top, top dollar when they chop because of the nature of our group, which is a nice thing in my book.<BR/><BR/>Good post.Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17031535857121915911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-75311936858845425062008-05-07T01:34:25.995-04:002008-05-07T01:34:25.995-04:00Hoy's pompassery got the better of him there. <BR/><BR/>The final table of the BBT3 TOC is gonna be full of ringers and whoever comes out on top will have timing and luck on their side.$mokkeehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13494763585388001041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-10085268499088167692008-05-06T13:30:04.599-04:002008-05-06T13:30:04.599-04:00Timing is the difference between 1st and last.<BR/><BR/>Nothing more.Drizztdjhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18069654181152145893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-12852575012682214152008-05-06T13:24:05.572-04:002008-05-06T13:24:05.572-04:00Sounds like Hoy's ego is speaking through his mouth again.<BR/><BR/>I'll bet if he doesn't win that the "donkey play of other people" will be the reason he loses and not what he does himself. That's generally how it works in his world.Pokerwolfhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06087637119337918275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8530420.post-52942316908392132022008-05-06T12:27:03.552-04:002008-05-06T12:27:03.552-04:00Good post. Hoy's comment is just the latest in a long run of outrageous and flat-out wrong statements that attempt to belittle players other than himself. He lives in a plane above the rest of us donkeys.Luckboxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00332618572275553171noreply@blogger.com