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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Would You Have A Chance?

{Go here if you are unfamiliar with the BBT3. - ed.}

Hoyazo is back from a crippling bout of mono (welcome back, hope you feel better) and has a couple new novella-length posts up. This paragraph about the BBT3 Tournament of Champions got my attention:
What's happened in the end is a rash of people agreeing to sell the ToC seat in deals, but settling for less money than others personally value the ToC seat alone to be worth. I've heard the figure of $550 or some shit like that kicked around, and I think that figure is silly because a good half of the people currently in the ToC in my view have close to zero chance of cashing in one of the top four spots in the series-ending Tournament of Champions, and most of them know it. To think that a person who knows he isn't very strong at no-limit holdem, doesn't play against the bloggers enough to know anything about them individually, and/or already has a seat somehow assigns $550 worth of value to their freeroll "buyin" at the end of the ToC, simply reflects a lack of understanding of how most of these people think.
(emphasis added).

Really? Close to zero?

Leaving aside the whole issue of chops - which I haven't given a minute's worth of thought - do you (and by you I mean both Hoy and you the reader) really think that a good half of the TOC entrants have virtually no shot at top four?

I just skimmed over the list of seat winners and to my careless eye it seems like a "who's who" of players who are both lucky and good. Regular winners of blonkaments. Sure there are a couple of outliers, but nothing approaching half of the field.

Factor in sheer luckboxery - not pointing any fingers here, but it's true - and I don't think I'd assign a "close to zero" chance to anyone, not even the worst players (not to be confused with the Worst Player, who definitely has a shot). Anyone want to offer me juicy odds on a "no chance" half of the field?

Don't get me wrong, I know this isn't the point of the paragraph - it may just be hyperbole - and think I generally agree with the rest of the discussion. Seats in the BBT3 tournament of champions (should) have different values to different people.

I'm just bemused that anyone, Hoy or otherwise, would think that such a high percentage of the field would have no chance.

Then again, as the 138th ranked BBT3 player and the single worst performer on a statistical basis (thanks muhctim and joshuacarlsen for at least being in the conversation, hope you guys cash soon), what the hell do I know?

Don't answer that.

I do know one thing - if you were willing to sell me your TOC seat, I would pay you exactly one dollar for it. That's $1 more than expected value for me given my skill level and how I'm running. The dollar is so that I can afford to pay you for the bad beat story when I bust out with a big pair and position against 63o. The difference between me and the "no shot" TOC people is they at least have the luck and/or skill to have gotten down to the final two in a blonkament.

{post cleaned up a bit, 3:00 ET 5/6/08}


Onward and downward.

Tonight being Tuesday, that means the Skillz Series at 9:30 (pw skillz) which I think is fRazz tonight. I may play, depending on how much I feel like being treated like a redheaded stepchild an Austrian daughter.

The Bodonkey is also tonight at 9:05 - still time there to win a seat at the World Series. I've burned through all my T$ on Bodog so I don't have many Bodonkeys left.

It's time to bump the badge:

Battle of the Bloggers


Luckbox said...

Good post. Hoy's comment is just the latest in a long run of outrageous and flat-out wrong statements that attempt to belittle players other than himself. He lives in a plane above the rest of us donkeys.

Pokerwolf said...

Sounds like Hoy's ego is speaking through his mouth again.

I'll bet if he doesn't win that the "donkey play of other people" will be the reason he loses and not what he does himself. That's generally how it works in his world.

Drizztdj said...

Timing is the difference between 1st and last.

Nothing more.

$mokkee said...

Hoy's pompassery got the better of him there.

The final table of the BBT3 TOC is gonna be full of ringers and whoever comes out on top will have timing and luck on their side.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Reasonable people can disagree about the percentage chances of winning of some of the dead money players, or about the fraction of ToC entrants who are in that "dead money" pool. I just went and re-looked over the list of winners though, I am seeing about half the field of very strong, proven blonkament players, and half the field of guys I don't see as having much of a chance against a field half-full of solid blonkamenters.

Like you said, the *real* point of my post is that many people are like you and don't view a ToC seat as being worth $550 or more to them. I'm sure your $1 comment was tongue in cheek, but that was really the whole point I was getting at. That, and that people simply are not requiring top, top dollar when they chop because of the nature of our group, which is a nice thing in my book.

Good post.

RaisingCayne said...

Well, the TOC will have around 50 people give or take... assuming equal probability for all, that's about a 2% chance for a player to take it down. And 2% is "close to zero chance" I suppose. ...

I would adamantly disagree with Hoy here, as I believe that ANY donkey that can find a means of winning a TOC seat, has the means of winning the TOC. And I believe to think any differently is pretty dumb. (Although I understand the arrogance that can make one reach such a conclusion.) Of course the odds on favorites are gonna be folks like TuscJohn, Loretta, Lucko, et al, but to assume others have ZERO chance is laughable. (Well, okay unless joshuacarlsen got in... he would have zero chance.)

(FYI... joshua's my donkey roommate. I jest. ... sort of.)