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Saturday, November 19, 2005

AIDS, Crack, Bernie Goetz...

It's a fine line between playing defensive poker and playing scared poker.

I'd like to think that the train wreck that was my Saturdays With Dr. Pauly experience today was an example of the former.

My impression while the tournament was going on was that I simply had nothing playable most of the time. Started at an aggressive table - very few hands got to a flop without a sizable raise. I didn't pick up anything worth more than a limp until just before the break, when I won a small pot with KK.

All things considered, I can live with the 19th place finish. I requested the hand histories for the tournament, just to see if I can confirm my recollection that the cards sucked.

{Warning: Boring Analytical Junk}

Here's what I found when I looked at the numbers -- the categories are ones of my own devising and don't really mean anything in particular. I think I have the math right on expected frequencies, but I didn't exactly spend a lot of time on it:

Total Hands Dealt: 153

Premium Hands -- AA to TT, AKs to AJs, AKo to AJo, KQs
6 of 153 (3.9%) Expected frequency 9 of 153 (6.0%)

Received: KK (1), QQ (1), JJ (1), AQs (1), AQo (2)

Folded AQo once when UTG+1 and UTG raised 3x BB. Won with the rest, just taking the blinds with all but the KK and AQs.

Lesser Pocket Pairs -- 99 to 22
7 of 153 (4.6%) Expected frequency 5.5 of 153 (3.6%)

Received: 88 (1); 77 (2); 66(1); 55(1); 33(1); 22 (1)

88 stole the blinds
77 took the blinds once and was folded preflop to an EP raise of 4x BB once
66 caught a gutshot on the river, for which I was not paid off.
55 UTG, limped and folded to 7xBB raise preflop
Folded 33 when an all-in and call ahead of me
Folded 22 when raised 3xBB before me & I had just under 5 BBs

Borderline Hands -- ATo, A9o, KQo, KJs, KJo, KTo, QJs, QJo, QTs, QTo, JTs, T9s
11 of 153 (7.2%) Expected frequency 12 of 153 (7.8%)

ATo, UTG+1, UTG+1, button w/ limper = fold x3.
A9o, UTG = fold
KQo, MP, folded to 4xBB raise from EP
KJs, MP, folded to 3xBB raise from EP, was reraised to 7x BB behind.
KTo, bah
QJo, (x3), bah
QTo, UTG+1 = fold

Unlikely Hands -- Everything else
129 of 153 (84.3%) Expected 126.5 of 153 (82.7%)

Other Suited Connectors (Zero or One Gap): 9 (5.9%)
Offsuit Connectors (Zero or One Gap): 16 (10.5%)
Suited Ace-Rags and King-Rags: 6 (3.92%)
Other Suited Crap: 16 (10.5%)
Offsuit Crap, including A-Rags and K-Rags: 82 (53.6%)
(although in theory this includes A8o and A7o, I never had either)

Interesting -- the numbers are actually very close to the expected distribution of hands, although I suspect that within the 'junk' category, actual hands were definitely skewed toward crap. Perception is not always the same as reality - even if I was dealt Q-uberrag (Q-4,Q-3 and Q-2) offsuit more times than all playable and marginally playable hands combined.

I guess the object lesson here is that sometimes you have to be more aggressive with junk. I rarely feel the need to do that playing MTTs at Titan, since the players are total push monkeys.

Time to adjust. Maybe I should read Harrington and learn what an "M" ratio is -- I suspect I would have needed a microscope and a high-powered calculator to figure mine out today. I think the probable result would have been a bustout in the 50s instead of 19th -- of the pairs and borderline hands I didn't play that went to showdown, I would have lost all of them.

{End Boring Analytical Crap}

Man, that was tiring. Not likely to ever do anything like this again.

You're welcome.

1 comment:

Maudie said...

What's your formula for "expected frequency"?